Sunday, October 24, 2010

Early Oscar Predictions: Update

80 Years of the Oscar: The Official History of the Academy AwardsOkay so it's only been a few weeks but I've had a change of mind already.
It's now clear "Hereafter" will not be one of the nominated films, opening up a spot. "Winter's Bone" and "Shutter Island" are still looking strong with their titles being remembered unlike "Greenberg" also released earlier this year. "Tree of Life" and "The Conspirator" are no longer getting released this year so they are out. With more traditional Oscar films emerging "Casino Jack", "Fair Game" and "It's Kinda of a Funny Story" don't seem likely at all anymore.

However, A few new contenders have risen into the spotlight. "Rabbit Hole" and "Made in Dagenhem" are probably the strongest of the new list. "The Company Men", "The Way Back", "Biutiful", "Another Year", and "Never Let Me Go" have now also appeared on my radar as possible.


EARLY OSCAR PREDICTIONS
FOR BEST PICTURE
So this would be my new guesses for the 10 films getting nominated:


(Sure bets)
1.   The Kings Speech
2.   True Grit
3.   Rabbit Hole
4.   The Social Network
5.   For Colored Girls

(Most Likely)
6.   The Town
7.   Inception
8.   Toy Story 3
9.   Made In Dagenhem
10. Black Swan

(Very Likely)
11. The Fighter
12. Buitiful
13. The Company Men
14. Winter's Bone
15. Another Year

(Long Shots)
16. Never Let Me Go
17. Welcome to the Rileys
18. Shutter Island
19. 127 Hours
20. The Way Back

Sunday, October 3, 2010

Early Oscar Predictions 2011

80 Years of the Oscar: The Official History of the Academy AwardsIt is the beginning of October and the Oscars are still 5 months away but I have always argued that I can pick which films will get nominated even without seeing them. Since the nominations won't come out for another four months and no magazine will be doing predictions for at least a few more weeks I thought I would take this as an opportunity to prove my point.

I am pretty sure they are doing 10 nominations for best film this year so my picks are as follows:


My Guesses For
BEST PICTURE NOMINATIONS



1. The Kings Speech
2. For Colored Girls
3. True Grit
4. Inception
5. The Social Network

6.  Toy Story 3
7.  The Town
8.  Welcome to the Rileys
9.  Hereafter
10. The Fighter


The first five I think are practically given and the second five are my guesses. The other contenders I am guessing are as follows, with the first five most likely to steal a spot and the last five to be the long shots.

11. The Conspirator
12. Black Swan
13. 127 Hours
14. Greenberg
15. Casino Jack

16. Winter's Bone
17. It’s Kind of a Funny Story
18. Fair Game
19. Shutter Island
20. Tree of Life


Other Guesses

I think the directors of my first five picks will all get nominated. I am also guessing Natalie Portman will be a front runner for Black Swan with her competition being the cast of For Colored Girls. Robin Wright will be a frontrunner for Supporting Actress in The Conspirator up against the rest of the cast of For Colored Girls. For Best Actor Colin Firth in The Kings Speech will be pitted against Jeff Bridges for True Grit as well as my pick James Gandolfini in Welcome to the Rileys. And I think Christian Bale will finally get his Oscar for The Fighter unless Matt Damon in True Grit can stop him. Of Gods and Men will almost certainly get nominated for best foreign film. Best Documentary will go to Waiting for Superman, Countdown to Zero, Force of Nature, or The Tilman Story. Toy Story 3 already has the animation Oscar in the bag. Inception will likely take the most Oscars for all the effects, editing, and sound categories as well as an Oscar for original screenplay.
 
Anyway a lot can happen between now and then so maybe I'll be way off.  We'll have to wait till February when they announce the nominations to see how well I know my stuff. In the meantime I'm going to try see all these films so I can tell you which deserve to win.

Monday, August 16, 2010

Top 10 New Generation Feature Film Directors

Rules - To ensure this list isn't purely made up of my opinion I have set some ground rules.

1. The director's first feature (a film over 75 minutes) must have been released after January 1st 1990.
2. The director must have directed a minimum of 2 films that appear (or appeared) on IMDB's Top 250 List.
3. The director's body of work as a whole (including their bad films) affects where they appear on the list.
4. The higher quality of films the director has made the higher they will appear on the list.
5. The more impact and prestige the director's films have generated the higher they will appear on the list.


THE TOP 10 NEW GENERATION DIRECTORS


Inception1. Christopher Nolan

I met Nolan back in 2000 when my job was to put a microphone on him for an interview during the Toronto International Film Festival, though I didn't know who he was at the time I could tell there was something very special about him.  Nolan is one of those directors that can make those rare films that appeal to critics, the film buffs and the masses alike.  It has been just over 10 years since he made his first feature film Following for an unbelievable $6,000.  Since then he has released masterpieces like Memento, The Prestige and Inception.  He has reinvented the comic book movie with Batman Begins and The Dark Knight and has already earned his place in history.  While studios seemed destined to cut corners and focus on films with a built-in fan base and hopes to release all tent pole films in 3D (to turn higher profits), along comes “Dark Knight” Nolan.  His insistence on quality filmmaking using the unbeatable look of film to present films that haven't cut any corners has attracted audiences in the masses.  His success could encourage Hollywood to return to more original film concepts and perhaps venture into the extraordinary possibilities of shooting entirely in IMAX (as rumored for the Nolan's next Batman film).  Having already shot some scenes of The Dark Knight in IMAX, Nolan's fascination with IMAX over 3D could prove to be a positive turning point for the future quality of Hollywood films and cinema in general.  God Bless Christopher Nolan and I hope Insomnia remains his weakest film (which is still better than most films).


Pulp Fiction2. Quentin Tarantino

Though Tarantino has lost the steam he once had (thanks in large part to Jackie Brown and Death Proof), it is without a doubt that he is a true film genius.  After starting with the two groundbreaking films Reservoir Dogs and Pulp Fiction the expectations set for him were higher than he has been able to deliver, but none the less he is probably the most influential director of the past twenty years.  Despite his ideas outweighing his delivery, Tarantino has given us some of the most inventive genre films in cinematic history.  Kill Bill, Inglorious Bastards and the Grindhouse experience couldn’t have come from any other filmmaker, and in the process he has opened the doors for others to continue to push the envelope.  Nolan may have structured a film backwards but would he have thought of it if Tarantino hadn’t opened our eyes to non-chronological story telling?

Toy Story [VHS]3. Team Pixar (Lee Unkrich, John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton, Brad Bird, Pete Docter)

I have to bend my own rules because it’s hard to point a finger at the true directing guru at Pixar, but with hit after hit with both the critics and audiences it’s impossible to deny that there is outstanding directing talent at Pixar.  Since 1995’s Toy Story, people of all ages have been treated to one amazing story after another.  We have been taken places that films had never taken us before, and even in the sequels we are given something new and inspiring.  No other company in the history of filmmaking has grossed over 100 million with every single feature they have made.  11 homeruns in a row and still going to be precise; Toy Story, A Bugs Life, Toy Story 2, Monsters Inc., Finding Nemo, Cars, The Incredibles, Ratatoullie, Wall-E, Up, and Toy Story 3. Can they keep the trend going with another sequel (to their 2nd lowest rated film on IMDB) Cars 2?

Fight Club
4. David Fincher

According to IMDB users from around the world, Fincher has two films in the top 30 films of all time, Fight Club and Seven.  He made his feature debut with Alien 3 which was met with split reviews, but after Seven, The Game, and Fight Club, Fincher looked to be the new top dog... But then he did Panic RoomPanic Room was actually a good movie but it is the kind of simple film you would expect from a first time director, not as the follow up to one of the greatest films of all time.  Fincher then miss stepped again with Zodiac which was met with mixed reviews mainly due to the drawn out length of the film and the choice of shooting in digital. Lucky for him, Brad Pitt (who seems to be his good luck charm) signed on to do his next film The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, which earned Fincher his first Oscar nomination (though I would argue is still not as strong as his earlier works).  Up next from Fincher is "the Facebook movie" Social Network then the remake of The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo, which should determine if he is on the verge of a full comeback or a swan dive.  Fincher is a director who has proven he knows how to pack a punch in the past, so let us hope he can still do it.

Slumdog Millionaire (Rental Ready)5. Danny Boyle

It’s hard to imagine that the same guy who directed 28 Days Later, also directed Slumdog Millionaire.  What makes Boyle special is that he can move from one genre to the next and adapt his style to the film he is making.  He is more concerned with telling an original story and making a great film than putting a signature style on his films.  With an Oscar now under his belt, Boyle’s only signature style seems to be greatness.  Though Boyle didn’t make his first feature Shallow Grave until he was 38 years old, he has since established himself as one of the extraordinary directing talents. He is the director behind classic films like Trainspotting, The Beach, Millions and Sunshine.  It is hard to argue that A Life Less Ordinary is up to par with the rest of his work,  but I've been pleased to read that reactions to early screenings of his next film 127 Hours have been very positive.

There Will Be Blood
6. Paul Thomas Anderson

His films barely recoup their cost and some even lose money like Magnolia.  His highest grossing film is There Will Be Blood with just over 40 million (which is lower then an average tent pole film's opening weekend), but it is a crime if he isn’t allowed to keep making his films.  Anderson is probably the closest director we have to a modern day Stanley Kubrick (and possibly the last director to have seen Kubrick work on set).  He is an auteur in every sense and his films have the epic qualities of a Kubrick movie because every detail is deliberately contrived to add further dimensions and layers.  His use of music is always entertaining and his shots are masterful.  His ability to bring out first class performances in his actors is evident in all of his films and has earned the very picky but brilliant actor Daniel Day Lewis his second Oscar.  Since his first film Hard Eight, Anderson has taken us into new frontiers with his films such as Boogie Nights and Punch Drunk Love.  Though not for the mainstream, he is unquestionably one of the best.  I have little doubt that he will get at least an Oscar nomination when he releases his next film The Master .

Requiem for a Dream (Director's Cut)
7. Darren Aronofsky

Though similar to Fincher with the gritty impactful-ness of his films, Aronofsky’s films are more obscure.  Starting off with a $60,000 film "π", Aronosky instantly established himself as a director that could deliver big concepts with small budgets.  Requiem For A Dream and The Wrestler were both completed with budgets under 6 million and are considered by most to be his best films.  I, personally, am more fascinated by what he did with special effects in the 35 million dollar budget, box office dud, The Fountain.  He has just finished Black Swan with Natalie Portman with a reported budget of 17 million so it will be interesting to see what he has done with it.  Aronofsky is another director that will likely have Oscar nominations in his future.


The Shawshank Redemption (Single Disc Edition)8. Frank Darabont

Darabont is somewhat of an anomaly.  His debut feature is the 1994 film The Shawshank Redemption, ranked as the number one film of all time by IMDB users around the world.  Five years later he followed it up with another top rated film The Green Mile.  Since then he has only done The Majestic and The Mist that earned little praise.  Arguably the greatest film of all time was directed by a director who averages a film every 4 years that is of a lesser quality than the one before.  He deserves a place on the list but sadly unless he is able to break this pattern do not expect much more from him in the future. Maybe someone should tell Stephen King to write another prison drama for Darabont to direct so that we can all benefit from his directing talent once again.


Snatch (Widescreen Edition)
9. Guy Richie

Martin Scorsese and Francis Ford Coppola may have defined the "Gangster" genre but Richie can be credited with redefining it.  With a creative twist on "Gangster" films Richie emphasized humor and coolness.  With a style almost as influential as Tarantino, Richie started his career with guns blazing in Lock Stock and Two Smoking Barrels, and Snatch.  But then almost suicided his career by making the very terrible film Swept Away for his then wife Madonna.  He followed that up with Revolver which was met with mixed reviews and it didn’t even receive a North American theatrical release. Luckily Richie got back to his roots and made Rock’n Roller and Sherlock Holmes.  With his rough patch hopefully behind him Richie has the potential to move up in status, but it will depend on what he does after the Sherlock sequel.

Being John Malkovich10. Spike Jonze

Though he had 2 films on IMDB's Top 250 List they have both fallen off leaving Jonze at the bottom of this list.  Despite his dwindling popularity, Jonze has quickly become one of the most imaginative directors of all time.  His first film Being John Malkovich is a weird quirky film that is unlike anything else you have seen.  The same can be said of his follow up film Adaptation, which is arguably even more clever.  However both films were written by Charlie Kaufman who is credited with much of the originality.  But it is clear after seeing Kaufman’s disastrous directorial debut Synecdoche New York, that Jonze clearly had a huge hand in the successful outcome of their collaborations.  Jonze’s most recent film Where the Wild Things Are is most certainly a visual spectacle though it lacks the complexity of the story and characters found in the films Kaufman wrote.  Though Jonze has only directed 3 feature films, you can be sure to expect big things from him in the future.  Pray he returns to collaborating with Kaufman as their talents compliment each other so well.