Early Oscar Predictions: Update

Okay so it's only been a few weeks but I've had a change of mind already.

It's now clear "Hereafter" will not be one of the nominated films, opening up a spot. "Winter's Bone" and "Shutter Island" are still looking strong with their titles being remembered unlike "Greenberg" also released earlier this year. "Tree of Life" and "The Conspirator" are no longer getting released this year so they are out. With more traditional Oscar films emerging "Casino Jack", "Fair Game" and "It's Kinda of a Funny Story" don't seem likely at all anymore.

However, A few new contenders have risen into the spotlight. "Rabbit Hole" and "Made in Dagenhem" are probably the strongest of the new list. "The Company Men", "The Way Back", "Biutiful", "Another Year", and "Never Let Me Go" have now also appeared on my radar as possible.


EARLY OSCAR PREDICTIONS
FOR BEST PICTURE
So this would be my new guesses for the 10 films getting nominated:


(Sure bets)
1.   The Kings Speech
2.   True Grit
3.   Rabbit Hole
4.   The Social Network
5.   For Colored Girls

(Most Likely)
6.   The Town
7.   Inception
8.   Toy Story 3
9.   Made In Dagenhem
10. Black Swan

(Very Likely)
11. The Fighter
12. Buitiful
13. The Company Men
14. Winter's Bone
15. Another Year

(Long Shots)
16. Never Let Me Go
17. Welcome to the Rileys
18. Shutter Island
19. 127 Hours
20. The Way Back