Okay so it's only been a few weeks but I've had a change of mind already.It's now clear "Hereafter" will not be one of the nominated films, opening up a spot. "Winter's Bone" and "Shutter Island" are still looking strong with their titles being remembered unlike "Greenberg" also released earlier this year. "Tree of Life" and "The Conspirator" are no longer getting released this year so they are out. With more traditional Oscar films emerging "Casino Jack", "Fair Game" and "It's Kinda of a Funny Story" don't seem likely at all anymore.
EARLY OSCAR PREDICTIONS
FOR BEST PICTURE
So this would be my new guesses for the 10 films getting nominated:
(Sure bets)
1. The Kings Speech
2. True Grit
3. Rabbit Hole
4. The Social Network
5. For Colored Girls
(Most Likely)
6. The Town
7. Inception
8. Toy Story 3
9. Made In Dagenhem
10. Black Swan
(Very Likely)
11. The Fighter
12. Buitiful
13. The Company Men
14. Winter's Bone
15. Another Year
(Long Shots)
16. Never Let Me Go
17. Welcome to the Rileys
18. Shutter Island
19. 127 Hours
20. The Way Back
It's now clear that "For Color Girls" will not be nominated. opening up another spot. I have also lost faith in "Welcome to the Rileys". So after some reshuffling and the introduction of two new films (though I consider both long shots) here is the latest list:
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2. True Grit
7. Toy Story 3
4. The Social Network
5. The Town
(Most Likely)
6. Rabbit Hole
7. Inception
8. 127 Hours
9. The Fighter
10. Another Year
11. The Way Back
12. Black Swan
13. Shutter Island
14. Made In Dagenhem
15. Buitiful
16. The Kids Are All Right
17. Love and Other Drugs
18. The Company Men
19. Winter's Bone
20. Never Let Me Go